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How the K-shaped economy is impacting agritourism

The United States economy is increasingly marked by a K-shaped pattern, in which higher-income, asset-owning households continue to see their incomes and wealth grow, sustaining their spending. Meanwhile, middle- and lower-income households face slower income growth and higher inflation, prompting them to cut back on nonessential purchases. Rather than a robust, stable middle class, more Americans are now positioned at the economic extremes, with a diminishing middle class in the center.

This phenomenon is not entirely new; it reflects the continuation of a longstanding trend of rising inequality in America. Today, the divide is more pronounced, and what many call an affordability crisis is further widening the gap.

Changing Income Distribution

According to recent research from the American Enterprise Institute, the number of affluent Americans has grown significantly over the past several decades, while the lower tiers of the middle class have shrunk. In 2024, about 31% of Americans were classified as upper middle class, compared with 22% in 2001. The data shows that 35% of households now belong to the two highest-earning groups - upper middle class and rich - while fewer households fall into the three lower-earning categories.

The report defines a three-person family earning between $133,000 and $400,000 as upper-middle-income, while those earning over $400,000 are considered rich. The core middle class is defined as earning between $67,000 and $133,000 for a family of three.

A Pew Research Center analysis using a different methodology also found that the share of American families in the higher-income group is increasing.

Together, the upper middle class and the rich make up 35% of households and occupy the top segment of the K-shaped economy. The remaining 65% are in the lower segment, underscoring the “K-shaped” distribution: a growing concentration of income and spending at the top.

Spending Patterns and Polarization

A Bank of America report from February 2026 highlights a widening gap in spending growth between the two branches of the K-shaped economy, which began in mid-2025. By February 2026, spending growth among the highest third of income households exceeded inflation, while spending growth among the lower two-thirds lagged, partly due to weaker wage growth. As a result, higher-income consumers continue to spend more on non-essential items, such as premium services and experiences, while lower- and middle-income households increasingly seek discounts and cut discretionary spending.

Impact on Agritourism Demand

The K-shaped economy has polarized demand for agritourism. Rather than a broad middle-class consumer base rising or falling together, we now see one segment of middle-income households advancing while another faces stagnant wages and rising costs. This split is evident in who visits agritourism venues, how often they visit, and how much they spend.

For agritourism businesses, the average middle-class consumer is no longer the primary customer. A more affluent segment remains willing to spend on travel and out-of-home experiences, while many families are scaling back, visiting less, spending less, or leaving the market altogether.

In a K-shaped world, mid-tier agritourism venues are squeezed: they are neither affordable to budget-conscious visitors nor distinctive enough for high-income guests.

Traditional Agritourism Models & Emerging Trends

Most traditional agritourism venues were built for a world in which the middle class was larger and growing, households with children were more common, and parents prioritized child-centric activities as a primary leisure option.

• The middle class was larger and expanding.
• Households with children were more prevalent.
• Parents prioritized kid-centric activities as a primary leisure category.

The K-shaped economy exacerbates deeper trends that undermine the traditional agritourism model:

• Across many markets, there are fewer households with children in the core 5-14 age group, reducing the natural audience for child-focused events.
• Parents increasingly prioritize experiences they enjoy - such as social activities, good food, curated drinks, and stylish settings - and bring kids along rather than choosing activities exclusively for children.
• Venues such as wineries, breweries, distilleries, and new social entertainment venues for adults are drawing demand and revenue away from traditional agritourism.

As a result, many traditional agritourism venues find themselves stuck in the squeezed middle: not affordable enough for value seekers and not distinctive enough for higher-income guests. These venues are experiencing stagnant or declining attendance, heightened price resistance when trying to offset costs, and a widening quality gap compared with newer, more adult-oriented competitors.

Behavior of High-Income Households

Households in the upper arm of the K-shaped economy, those with higher incomes and assets, display distinct behavior:

• They continue to spend on experiences, including travel, concerts, premium dining, high-quality entertainment, and transformative events. Travel industry research shows that higher-income travelers are booking more experiences, paying higher prices, and showing strong interest in nature- and food-based trips where agritourism is well-positioned.
• Expectations for food and beverage quality have risen. Higher-income guests now compare offerings at agritourism venues with those at premium dining, travel, and live events, making “good enough” venues less competitive.
• These guests are more selective, seeking elevated experiences with thoughtful design, quality food and beverage, efficient service, and social “brag-worthiness.”
• They are less price-sensitive as long as perceived value is high, and they are willing to pay more for high-quality, flavor-forward food and drink and for special events.

Strategic Evolution for Agritourism

For agritourism providers, these trends suggest a shift from kid-centric offerings with some adult tolerance to adult-centric experiences with family-friendly options, particularly in suburban markets with sufficient numbers of upper-middle- and affluent households.

Our company has been working with our farm clients to develop events that attract consumers in the higher-income, upper segment of the K-shaped economy. We have found that one of the largest unmet opportunities in agritourism is creating events for cohabiting couples without children. We have seen great success with events designed for that market, as well as with those targeting the upper socioeconomic market.

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